Export Market Screening

What it does

Export Market Screening answers "where, and in what order, should I export this product?" with an evidence-based prioritization instead of gut feel or internal politics. It takes a product name or HS-6 code, ranks candidate target markets with a Market Attractiveness Score (0-100), and produces a "why / why not + first move" for each market.

The core logic is a sequential screening funnel (Cavusgil-Kotabe / Market Screening Funnel): Pre-screening (macro) → Sector potential → Company-market fit → Target selection. Expensive analysis is applied only to the few markets surviving each funnel stage, so a broad country list is narrowed in a disciplined way.

Scoring is a 5-axis weighted rubric: Demand (0.30), Access cost (0.25), Competition gap (0.20), Entry barrier/NTM (0.15), CAGE proximity (0.10). Each axis is scored 0-5, weighted, and normalized to 100. A knock-out rule eliminates any market requiring a mandatory certificate the company lacks — selling without the certificate burns money. A concentration test (HHI intuition) flags markets where a single supplier holds 50%+/80%+ of imports.

When to use it

• "Where can I export this product?" — opening a market from scratch.
• "Does market X make sense for us?" — validating a single candidate.
• "Which of these 3 countries should I start with?" — shortlist ranking.
• Sales managers, export specialists or SME owners prioritizing target markets before a trade fair or export plan.

Method / frameworks

• Market Screening Funnel (Cavusgil & Kotabe) — sequential macro→micro elimination.
• CAGE Distance Framework (Ghemawat, HBR) — Cultural/Administrative/Geographic/Economic distance.
• RCA / Balassa Index + trade-flow — whether the target is a net importer, source countries, rival exporter strength (RCA>1).
• Tariff + NTM wall (WTO/WCO) — MFN vs preferential/FTA tariff, certificate/quota/standard barriers.
• Data sources: UN Comtrade, ITC Trade Map, WITS, WTO Tariff Download, national trade ministry. No source → "typical range" + gaps; no unsupported certainty.