Cash Flow Scenario Modeler

What it does

Converts the assumption set into a driver tree (Revenue = volume × unit price, Collections = f(Revenue, DSO), Supplier payments = f(COGS, DPO)) and builds cash flow from operational drivers — never as "last month +X%". It bridges net income to cash with an accounting-correct indirect cash-flow method: Cash ≈ Net income + Depreciation − ΔNet Working Capital (ΔAR + ΔInventory − ΔAP) − Capex ± Financing, which exposes the "profitable but cashless" trap. The three scenarios (base/P50, optimistic/P90, pessimistic/P10) are derived from driver bundles, not by trimming the output. For each month it computes cumulative cash, flags the first negative month as end of runway, and reports any breach of the safety buffer (1-2 months of opex) with warn/critical severity. A tornado sensitivity analysis swings each driver ±10%/±20% and ranks the impact on year-end cash and runway — the widest 1-2 bars are the "critical levers". Where uncertainty is high, Monte Carlo adds runway P10/P50/P90 and P(cash<0). Results are summarized as a 0-100 Liquidity Score with a "Healthy / Watch / Fragile / Critical" verdict.

When to use it

When you must answer "when does cash run out?", "if price drops 5%, how many months of runway?", "if collections slip 15 days, when do we need a bridge loan?". Built for FP&A / Treasury / Accounting teams in the weekly-monthly cash cycle, before a capex/investment decision, when planning financing timing, or presenting a scenario band to the board.

Method / frameworks

Driver-Based Forecasting (CFI / AFP FP&A canon) · Three-Statement Model indirect bridge · 13-Week Cash Flow (TWCF, AFP treasury standard, direct method) · NPV / IRR & WACC decision rule (Brealey–Myers, Principles of Corporate Finance) · Cash Conversion Cycle (CCC = DSO + DIO − DPO) · Sensitivity & Tornado / two-way data table plus optional Monte Carlo (Benninga, Financial Modeling) · IAS 7 cash flow statements (direct vs indirect). Sector DSO/DPO/margin and macro (rate/FX/inflation) benchmarks are cited via web-research, never fabricated; all arithmetic runs through a single engine (metric-calculator).