AI Use-Case ROI Calculator

What it does

Turns an AI/automation idea from "feels worth it" into a defensible business case you can put in front of an investment committee. Five frameworks run in sequence:

1. SIPOC + Process Decomposition (Six Sigma / DMAIC "Define") — breaks the process into Supplier–Input–Process–Output–Customer; records each step's volume, unit time and error rate. Only repetitive + rule-based + digital-input steps are automation candidates.
2. Automation Suitability Assessment (RPA/IA feasibility canon — UiPath/Automation Anywhere style) — scores each step on suitability (structure, exception rate, system access) and complexity, producing an Automation Suitability Score 0-100 (repetitiveness 25%, rule-based 20%, input structure 20%, exception rate 15%, system access 10%, error cost 10%).
3. Activity-Based Costing (ABC) — current (As-Is) annual cost = volume × unit time × fully-loaded hourly rate + rework cost.
4. TCO (Total Cost of Ownership) — AI (To-Be) scenario: one-time investment (build + integration + training) + recurring (token/API + maintenance + HITL + licenses). Token cost is modeled as a variable line that scales linearly with volume.
5. Investment Valuation (Brealey-Myers corporate finance) — net annual benefit, Payback (months), year-1 ROI, 3-year NPV (discount rate, typically 15-25%), IRR, and one-way / tornado sensitivity (at least 2 assumptions ±20%). The most fragile assumption is flagged.

Output: a GO / PILOT / NO-GO verdict + score card + As-Is↔To-Be cost comparison + sensitivity projection + fragile-assumption warnings.

When to use it

When the question is "is this AI use-case worth doing, how many months to amortize, under which scenario does it make sense?" For the AI developer / automation / digital-transformation owner who must carry an AI idea to a manager or investment committee. Not pure technical feasibility (model choice, architecture) — the core output here is the cost/benefit business case. Fits pilot scoping, prioritizing across multiple use-cases, and budget defense.

Method / frameworks

SIPOC/DMAIC (ASQ Lean Six Sigma), Activity-Based Costing (Kaplan & Cooper), Gartner TCO, NPV/IRR/Payback (Brealey-Myers, Principles of Corporate Finance), FP&A sensitivity/tornado analysis, and the RPA/IA candidate-selection rubric. TR-specific: fully-loaded rate with employer social-security + overhead, real/nominal and VAT consistency. Sector benchmarks (mid-market payback 6-9 months, 3-year ROI ~210-220%, fully-loaded 1.25-1.4× gross) are verified via web-research; assumptions are flagged in gaps, never false precision.